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ExamsJEE AdvancedMaths

Three urns X, Y, and Z contain the following balls: X has 7 red and 5 black balls; Y has 5 red and 7 black balls; Z has 6 red and 6 black balls. One urn is chosen at random (each with equal probability) and a single ball is drawn from it. Given that the drawn ball is black, what is the probability that it came from urn X?

  1. 4/17
  2. 5/18
  3. 7/18
  4. 5/36

Correct answer: 5/18

Solution

By Bayes' theorem: P(X|black) = (5/12 * 1/3) / (1/2) = (5/36) / (1/2) = 10/36 = 5/18.

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